Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

Climate model uncertainty versus conceptual geological uncertainty in hydrological modeling

Projections of climate change impact are associated with a cascade of uncertainties including in CO2 emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling and impact models. The relative importance of the individual uncertainty sources is expected to depend on several factors including the quantity that is projected. In the present study the impacts of climate model uncertainty and geological model u...

comparison of optimization and uncertainty analysis methods in hydrological modeling

rainfall-runoff modeling is most important component in the water resource management of river basins. the successful application of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model depends on how well it is calibrated. the degree of difficulty in solving the global optimization method is generally dependent on the dimensionality of the model and certain of the characteristics of object function. the purpose...

Climate Model Uncertainty

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to dis...

Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensiti...